Monthly Travel Indicators Summary - December 2024

Executive Summary Domestic

Forecast (updated February, June & October)

• Domestic visitor spending in California for 2024 is expected to remain steady compared to 2023, as leisure travel demand stabilizes, and outbound travel continues to rise.
• According to the Tourism Economics October forecast prepared for Visit California, the state is forecast to earn $155.2 billion in travel spending in 2024, 3% higher than 2023.
• Domestic leisure spending is forecast to be $128 billion, remaining similar to 2023. Domestic business spending, however, is expected to grow by 1%.
• Total domestic visitor spending is forecast to grow by 3% in 2025

Macroeconomic

• Inflation and consumer confidence have shown an unexpectedly parallel trend. Over the past three months, both have increased simultaneously — an unusual pattern, as they typically move in opposite directions. Despite this, the overall economy remains strong, supported by job growth and low unemployment.
• Inflation ticked up 2.9% in December marking three straight months of slight increases. The national average retail price for a gallon of gas was $3.14 (vs. $3.18 the previous month). The California equivalent price was $4.24 (compared to $4.36 the previous month).
• A preliminary estimate of 256,000 jobs were added to the economy. The unemployment rate was 4.1%.
• The University of Michigan tracked U.S. consumer sentiment index on the economy to 74, up from the 71.8 measurement in November.

Consumer Sentiment

• Consumer sentiment around finances and travel remained generally consistent with prior months. While California residents have historically responded more positively to questions about personal finances and travel budgets compared to the U.S. overall, their recent responses have aligned more closely with national trends — or, in some cases, have been more negative. This shift may suggest unique economic concerns among travel consumers in the state.
• Consumer tracking from Future Partners showed that the cost of travel continues to be a top barrier/deterrent to travel in the past 6 months with a third (33%) of U.S. travelers saying travel is too expensive right now. California residents were slightly more likely to cite travel costs, and notably gas prices, as barriers to travel compared to the U.S. overall.
• Just under a third of American travelers (32%) felt optimistic about their current financial situation relative to a year ago (California residents were more optimistic at 39%). Travelers were more confident about their future economic situation (49% of the U.S. and 53% of California residents expect more positive).
• American travelers were excited about future travel, with 89% of U.S. travelers (and 92% of California residents) saying they were excited about leisure travel in the next 12 months.
• Forty-two percent of American travelers and more than half of California travelers (52%) said they were considering international leisure travel in the next 12 months.

Lodging

• California's lodging demand closed the year with modest 1% growth compared to 2023. While December saw a 1% increase in RevPAR, the metric declined 1% for the year, driven by a 1% drop in ADR. Group demand also rose by 1% in 2024, though the San Francisco Bay Area and Deserts regions were the only areas to see a decline.
• Hotel room demand in the state for December grew 1% year over year. Looking at the year-to-date figures, room demand for the state ended the year up 1%.
• California’s monthly occupancy rate was 58% (+1% YOY). The state's ADR was $173 (flat YOY), and RevPAR was $100 (+1 YOY). RevPAR for 2024 declined 1% relative to 2023, primarily driven by a 1% decline in ADR for the year.
• Group room demand in the state declined 3% relative to December 2023. However, the Deserts region recorded 37% growth in demand for the month. For the year, Group demand increased 1% in 2024.
• For December. the occupancy rate for short-term vacation rentals in the state was 51%, -3% year over year and ADR was up 4%, leading to a 1% increase in RevPAR year over year.

Airlift

• Holiday travel in December was robust. National air passenger traffic measured by TSA checkpoints showed nearly 7% year-over-year growth in December.
• Seventy-seven million passengers were screened nationally at TSA checkpoints for the month (+7% YOY).  Eight million travelers were screened at California airports (-13% YOY).
• There were 9.8 million non-stop domestic seats to California destinations for the month (+3% YOY).

Executive Summary International

Forecast (updated February, June & October)

• International travel spending in California is projected to reach 98% of 2019 levels in 2024, fueled by strong demand from Mexico, Canada, and key overseas markets such as Australia and India.
• According to Tourism Economics’ October Forecast prepared for Visit California, international visitor spending in the state will grow by 22% in 2024 and reach $27.6 billion and grow by another 22% in 2025.
• North American neighbors Mexico and Canada are forecast to be California’s largest spending markets, with visitor spending of $4.9 billion and $3.8 billion, respectively.
• China is forecast to be the most important overseas market, with visitor spending of $2.5 billion in 2024, 94% of 2019 spending levels.

Consumer Sentiment

• Consumer sentiment around travel from Visit California’s 13 priority markets was on par with prior months. Price remains the top barrier.
• On average, across California’s priority markets, 43% of international consumers said they were planning international leisure travel (anywhere) in the next 12 months, up from 40% a year ago and 37% two years ago for the comparable month. Mexico recorded the largest increase in international leisure travel intent (+10pts). In contrast, Japan slipped 5pts.
• Travel prices are the primary barrier to travel (44% citing travel price, on par with December 2023). Responses across the priority markets were comparable to the prior year except for Canada which saw a 4pt increase in price of travel as a barrier.
• Safety and health concerns remained secondary barriers in the Asia Pacific, India and Middle East markets.

Airlift/Arrivals

• International non-resident arrivals to California from Visit California’s 13 priority markets continued to grow in December on a year-over-year basis. China market recovery slowed slightly but remained improved from the first half of the year.
• For the month, 1.6 million non-stop seats to California arrived from Visit California’s 13 priority markets, equivalent to December 2023. The U.K. and Japan had the most non-stop seats to California for the month among the overseas markets. China (+32%) and South Korea (+17%) continued to lead the way in terms of growth. For the year. China recovered 44% of non-stop seats to California. India had the most growth from 2019 airlift with a 107% increase over 2023 airlift.
• Non-resident arrivals from priority markets through California’s ports of entry continued a growth trajectory, up 4% for the month. China recovered to 72% of prepandemic arrivals for the month, the fourth month in a row of recovery above the 70% mark. For the year, arrivals from China increased by 61% relative to 2023.