State and Regional Lodging Forecast (May 2026)

Forecast through 2029 of key lodging indicators — including supply, demand, occupancy, average daily rate, revenue per available room, and revenue — for California and its 12 tourism regions.

•  According to Tourism Economics’ May Lodging Forecast, California room revenue is projected to increase 5.2% in 2026, reaching $28.2 billion. Statewide ADR is expected to rise 2.9% to $196, surpassing the previous peak set in 2023.
• Occupancy rates are projected to rise in the gateway regions and the other areas, as demand growth will outpace new supply.
• ADR in the Gateway markets will benefit from the Super Bowl (San Francisco) and World Cup (San Francisco, Los Angeles) in 2026. These major events will contribute to a 3.3% growth rate in the Gateway markets versus 1.7% growth elsewhere.
• Economic headwinds from the conflict in Iran may weigh on travel for a few months, but they aren’t expected to fully derail the first quarter’s strong momentum.
• Demand growth is fairly even across Gateway and all other regions in 2026, but a stronger rate growth in Gateway markets will drive stronger growth in 2026 RevPAR and revenue