State and Regional Lodging Forecast (September 2025)

Forecast through 2028 of key lodging indicators — including supply, demand, occupancy, average daily rate, revenue per available room, and revenue — for California and its 12 tourism regions.

• According to Tourism Economics’ September Lodging Forecast, California room revenue is expected to rise 1.9% in 2025.
  
• California’s hotel industry is outpacing the overall US industry, which is forecast to experience no growth in demand and less than 1.0% growth in ADR and revenue in 2025.
• Gateway markets are more exposed to international visitor declines and weaker business travel.
• Occupancy rates outside the Gateway markets are under more pressure from supply growth.
• Relatively strong demand growth outside the Gateway regions will lift revenue 2.2% versus 1.8% growth in Gateway revenue.
• Several events in 2026 will support growth in ADR and room revenue next year. San Francisco is hosting the 2026 Super Bowl, and both Los Angeles and San Francisco are host cities for the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
• The forecast is clouded by an abnormally high degree of uncertainty, largely due to the administration’s frequent shifts on tariffs and trade policies. On the other hand, wages continue to outpace inflation, and household budgets remain in fairly good shape, which provides some support to consumer spending.