State and Regional Lodging Forecast (September 2026)

Forecast through 2029 of key lodging indicators, including supply, demand, occupancy, average daily rate, revenue per available room, and revenue — for California and its 12 tourism regions.

• The lodging forecast for California was revised upward again in September following a summer season which saw strong rate growth driven by FIFA World Cup, a strong convention calendar, and robust leisure travel.

• Statewide ADR is forecast to rise to $200 in 2026, establishing a new all-time high.

• The Super Bowl in San Francisco and FIFA World Cup matches in San Francisco and Los Angeles will contribute to 5.6% ADR growth in Gateway markets, compared with 2.6% elsewhere. The San Francisco Bay Area led ADR growth through July, with rates up 9.5%, supported by these events and a strong convention calendar.
• Higher gas prices and airfares stemming from the conflict in Iran have not prevented lodging demand from growing. Demand is expected to outpace supply growth in 2026, supporting an increase in the statewide average annual occupancy rate.
• After near double-digit RevPAR growth in 2026, which sets a challenging comparison point, Tourism Economics forecasts more moderate growth across all hotel performance metrics in 2027.