Visitation and Spend Forecast (September 2026)

An outlook on visitation and spending, including international spend and visitor forecast for 13 priority markets, featuring both baseline and downside scenarios.

• According to Tourism Economics’ September baseline forecast, California’s visitor volume is forecast to increase 1.8% in 2026, adding 4.9 million visits and bringing the statewide total to 276.3 million visitors.
• Visitor spending is forecast to grow by $7.4 billion (+4.7%) in 2026, reaching $166.3 billion. Rising travel prices, driven primarily by higher gas prices and airfares, are expected to contribute to overall nominal spending growth. After accounting for inflation, however, real spending is projected to increase a more modest 1.2%.
• Domestic travel spending is forecast to increase 4.8% in 2026, following a 2.5% increase in 2025.
• International visits are forecast to rise 2.4% in 2026 despite declining arrivals from Canada and overseas. Overseas visits are expected to decline 3.8% in 2026, following a 5.0% decline in 2025. Arrivals from Canada are also expected to decline for a second consecutive year, with a 6.5% decline compounding the 20.1% drop in 2025.
• Arrivals from Mexico are forecast to rise 8.6%, more than offsetting declines from other origins.
• International travel spending is forecast to reach $26.0 billion (+2.3%) in 2026.
• According to Tourism Economics, the downside forecast captures risks from heightened geopolitical uncertainty, renewed increases in inflationary pressures, and financial market turmoil.
• Under this downside scenario, California's total visitor volume growth would slow to 1.1% in 2026. Domestic visitation would increase 1.2%, while international visitation growth would flatten to 0.0%.