Monthly Travel Indicators Summary - February 2025

Executive Summary Domestic

Forecast (updated February & March 2025)

• Tourism Economics has released an updated national tourism outlook, leading to a downward revision in California’s projected visitor spending for 2025. At the beginning of the year, spending was expected to grow by 6% compared to 2024. That year-over-year growth has now been revised down to just 2%. Visit California will update the full California forecast in May, incorporating the latest data and economic indicators.

Macroeconomic

• U.S. economic indicators remained generally positive in February, with one key exception: consumer sentiment. Sentiment dropped sharply, falling 9% from January, as consumers’ inflation expectations increased.
• Inflation increased by 2.8% in February, down from 3% prior month. The national average retail price for a gallon of gas was $3.25 up from $3.20 the previous month, while the average price in California stood at $4.59.
• A preliminary estimate shows the U.S. economy added 151,000 jobs in February, while the unemployment rate ticked up slightly to 4.1%.
• The University of Michigan’s U.S. Consumer Sentiment Index measured 64.7 for the month, down 9% from the 71.1 reading in January.

Consumer Sentiment

• Despite negative consumer sentiment about the overall economy, travel sentiment remained positive in February—indicating that consumers still plan to prioritize leisure travel in their budgets. However, there is significant interest in international destinations, as more U.S. travelers look abroad for their vacations.
• Consumer tracking from Future Partners found that travel costs remained a top barrier to travel, with 33% of U.S. travelers indicating high costs deterred them from traveling. California residents were slightly more likely to cite travel costs (35%) and were more likely to identify gas prices and airfare as barriers compared to the U.S. overall.
• A third (33%) of American travelers felt optimistic about their current financial situation compared to a year ago, while California residents were slightly more optimistic at 38%. However, travelers expressed greater confidence in their future economic situation, with 46% of U.S. travelers and 50% of California residents expecting improvement.
• Excitement for future travel remained high, with 89% of U.S. travelers and 87% of California residents saying they were excited about leisure travel in the next 12 months.
• Additionally, 48% of American travelers and 63% of California travelers said they were considering international leisure travel within the next 12 months. Both rates increased significantly in February.

Lodging

• Lodging demand was a relative bright spot for the industry with 4% growth in February. Key performance indicators—including occupancy, average daily rate (ADR), and revenue per available room (RevPAR)—also outperformed both 2024 levels and national averages. While part of the strong growth is due to a soft Q1 in California last year, increased domestic visitation and continued recovery efforts following the LA wildfires are also driving positive momentum. Group demand saw particularly strong gains, with double-digit growth for the month.
• Hotel room demand in California grew by 4% year over year in February, while room revenue increased by 6%. Year to date, demand and revenue are up 4% and 7% respectively.
• The state’s monthly occupancy rate reached 65% (+3% YOY), with an average daily rate (ADR) of $186 (+3% YOY) and revenue per available room (RevPAR) of $121 (+6% YOY).
• Group room demand increased by 12% compared to February 2024, while room revenue rose by an impressive 15%.
• For February, the occupancy rate for short-term vacation rentals in California stood at 53% (-2% YOY), with ADR rising 15%, leading to a 13% year-over-year increase in RevPAR to $230.

Airlift

• February showed some softness in air travel. National air passenger traffic, measured by TSA checkpoint counts, declined 3% year-over-year — the first drop in more than three years. Meanwhile, nonstop domestic seat capacity to California remained flat compared to February 2024.
• In total, 62.6 million passengers were screened at TSA checkpoints nationwide for the month, reflecting a 3% year-over-year decrease. At California airports, screenings declined 4% to 7.5 million travelers. Southern California airports as well as San Francisco Bay-Oakland saw the most significant passenger declines in February.
• Nonstop domestic seat capacity to California destinations totaled 8.1 million for the month, flat year over year.

Executive Summary International

Forecast (updated February 2025)

• The current international forecast does not account for recent wildfire events in Los Angeles and policy decisions by the Trump administration. The next update will occur in May.

Consumer Sentiment

• Consumer sentiment in Visit California’s 13 priority markets around international leisure travel remained high and consistent with prior months, with price continuing to be the top barrier. However, looking at perceptions and interest in the U.S. and California specifically, sentiment has grown increasingly negative since January.
• On average, across California’s priority markets, 42% of international consumers reported plans for international leisure travel (to any destination) within the next 12 months — consistent with February 2024 and up from 39% in the same month two years ago.
• Travel costs remained the primary barrier, cited by 46% of respondents, up slightly from January 2024. Chinese consumers were more likely to cite travel costs relative to a year ago.
• In the Asia-Pacific, India, and Middle East markets, safety and health concerns remained secondary barriers to travel.
• NEW DATA: Based on YouGov sentiment data, consumers in California’s core international markets (Australia, Canada, Mexico, UK) have increasingly indicated negative sentiment (heard negative buzz, have a negative impression) about both the U.S. and California as travel destinations which has caused interest in traveling to these destinations to decline (consideration for travel.) However, consumers in these markets generally have more negative sentiment towards the U.S. as a whole compared to sentiment on California.

Airlift/Arrivals

• While there were calendar shifts impacting comparisons this month, international airlift and arrival growth rates were in clear negative territory for the month for the state. Measures were somewhat worse for Southern California airports/ports of entry likely suggesting that both wildfires and political climate were having an impact on international visitation.
• In total, there were 1.3 million nonstop seats to California from Visit California’s 13 priority markets for the month, down 4% from February 2024. Among overseas markets, the U.K. and Japan had the highest number of nonstop seats to California. China (+34%) and South Korea (+11%) continued to lead in airlift growth.
• Non-resident arrivals from priority markets through California’s ports of entry declined by nearly 9% relative to February 2024. Arrivals from every priority market declined for the month. Canada recorded a 12% decline in air arrivals for the month. Chinese arrivals declined 12%, but the calendar shift of Chinese Lunar New Year from February to January impacted comparable travel from the market. The Los Angeles port saw the largest year-over-year decline in arrivals compared to other California ports.
• Note: February 2024 benchmark was a leap year with 29 days compared to 28 days in 2025.