Monthly Travel Indicators Summary - November 2024

Executive Summary Domestic

Forecast (updated February, June & October)

• Domestic visitor spending in California for 2024 is forecast to be flat with 2023 spending due to normalizing leisure travel demand and increasing rates of outbound travel.
• According to the Tourism Economics October forecast prepared for Visit California, the state is forecast to earn $155.2 billion in travel spending in 2024, 3% higher than 2023.
• Domestic leisure spending is forecast to be $128 billion, flat relative to 2023. Domestic business spending, however, is expected to grow by 1%.
• Total domestic visitor spending is forecast to grow by 3% in 2025.

Macroeconomic

• The macroeconomic outlook remained positive in November despite a slight uptick in inflation. Gas prices continued to decline in California and the U.S. overall, and national economic consumer sentiment was on an upward trend.
• Inflation ticked up slightly again in November to 2.7%. The national average retail price for a gallon of gas was $3.18 (vs. $3.26 the previous month). The California equivalent price was $4.36 (compared to $4.51 the previous month).
• Approximately 227,000 jobs were added to the economy. The unemployment rate was 4.2%.
• The University of Michigan tracked U.S. consumer sentiment on the economy to 71.8, up from the 68.9 measurement in October.

Consumer Sentiment

• While there were no significant shifts in national consumer sentiment for the month, California residents were somewhat more negative about their financial situation and travel costs in general. In some metrics, sentiment registered more negative relative to the U.S. overall, an unusual trend.
• Consumer tracking from Future Partners showed that the cost of travel continues to be a top barrier/deterrent to travel with approximately a third (34%) of U.S. travelers saying travel is too expensive right now. California residents were more likely to cite travel costs and personal financial reasons as barriers to travel in November compared to the U.S. overall, reversing the typical trend.
• Just under a third of American travelers (29%) felt optimistic about their current financial situation relative to a year ago (California residents were equally optimistic at 29%). They were more confident about their future economic situation (50% of the U.S. and 49% of California residents expect more positive).
• American travelers were excited about future travel, with 88% of U.S. travelers (and 90% of California residents) saying they were excited about leisure travel in the next 12 months. The figures were on par with the prior month.
• Nearly four out of 10 American travelers (39%) and half of California travelers (50%) said they were considering international leisure travel in the next 12 months. The California resident figure was down from the 61% figure in November 2023.

Lodging

• California lodging demand on a year-to-date basis turned from flat to positive 1% (based on rounding) with a solid +2% rate of growth for November. However, hotel rates remained soft declining 2% for the month relative to November 2023 leading to a flat RevPAR growth rate for the month. Group demand growth rate was also negative for a second straight month, likely hindered by tough comparisons due to the election and Thanksgiving holiday bookending the month. Short-term vacation rentals continued to show strong pricing power relative to the hotel sector.
• Hotel room demand in the state for the month grew 2% year over year. Looking at the year-to-date figures, room demand for the state was up 1% year over year and down 7% from 2019 through November.
• California’s monthly occupancy rate was 63% (+2% YOY). The state's ADR was $178 (-2% YOY), and RevPAR was $113 (flat YOY). The week ending Nov. 24 (the week prior to Thanksgiving) had a particularly strong performance with occupancy at +16% and RevPAR at +21%. San Francisco Bay Area specifically and gateway regions in general saw the strongest RevPAR growth for the week.
• Group room demand in the state declined 3% relative to November 2023. San Diego County and Orange County regions recorded double digit growth in demand for the month.
• The occupancy rate for short-term vacation rentals in the state was 52%, +3% year over year and ADR was up 9%, driving a 12% increase in RevPAR year over year.

Airlift

• Air passenger traffic measured by TSA checkpoints continued to show year-over-year growth. Thanksgiving holiday week set records with more than 3 million passengers screened by TSA on Sunday, Dec. 1 – a single day record.
• Seventy-two million passengers were screened nationally at TSA checkpoints for the month (+1% YOY).  Just over 9 million travelers were screened at California airports (-1% YOY).
• There were 9.6 million non-stop domestic seats to California destinations for the month (+3% YOY).

Executive Summary International

Forecast (updated February, June & October)

• International travel spending in California is forecast to nearly fully recover in 2024 (98% of 2019 spending), driven by Mexico, Canada and key overseas markets like Australia and India.
• According to the Tourism Economics October forecast prepared for Visit California, international visitor spending in the state will grow by 22% in 2024 and reach $27.6 billion and grow by another 22% in 2025.
• North American neighbors Mexico and Canada are forecast to be California’s largest spending markets, with visitor spending of $4.9 billion and $3.8 billion, respectively.
• China is forecast to be the most important overseas market, with visitor spending of $2.5 billion in 2024, 94% of 2019 spending levels.

Consumer Sentiment

• Intent for international leisure travel has generally plateaued in the priority markets while sentiment around travel costs as a barrier declined somewhat from prior year.
• On average, across California’s priority markets, 42% of international consumers said they were planning international leisure travel (anywhere) in the next 12 months, up from 41% a year ago and 37% two years ago for the comparable month. The Indian market saw intent increase to 37% in November compared to 32% in 2023.
• Travel prices are the primary barrier to travel (42% citing travel price, down 2% to prior month and previous year). While many priority markets saw a decline in this metric on a year-over-year basis, travelers from Japan were more likely to cite travel prices as a barrier relative to a year ago (47% vs. 41% prior year.)
• Safety and health concerns remained secondary barriers in the Asia Pacific, India, and Middle East markets.

Airlift/Arrivals

• International airlift and non-resident arrivals to California from Visit California’s 13 priority markets continued to grow in November on a year-over-year basis. China recovery improved notably this month in terms of both arrivals and, notably, airlift.
• For the month, 1.4 million non-stop seats to California were available from Visit California’s 13 priority markets, a 2% year-over-year growth rate. The U.K. and Japan had the most non-stop seats to California for the month among the overseas markets. China (+67%) and South Korea (+24%) had the largest growth rates. China airlift recovery reached 45% of 2019 airlift, a notable uptick.
• Non-resident arrivals from priority markets through California’s ports of entry were growing steady, up 4% for the month. China recovered to 84% of prepandemic arrivals for the month, the third month in a row of recovery above the 70% mark.