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Economic Impact by State, Region & Country Back TO RESEARCH AND TRENDS

Recovery Research Dashboard - July 2022

Visit California and third-party data sets

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(Date of Publication: August 8, 2022)

Summary compilation of statistics from a variety of Visit California and third-party data sets. The data are updated monthly and provide insight on the status of recovery across key indicators. A monthly highlights section provides an analyses of the state of travel recovery for California.

Visit California has incorporated new data sources and insights into the July dashboard, including: 

  1. Group Occupancy (Source: STR, Inc.): Group occupancy for top meeting and events markets in California and the U.S.   
  2. International Consumer Sentiment (Source: YouGov): Overall and country-level sentiment around COVID-19 and international leisure travel. 
  3. Share of International Arrivals (Source: NTTO/CIC Research): Overall and country-level share of arrivals based on First Intended Address (FIA).


MAJOR TAKEAWAYS

Public Health Indicators

  • California’s COVID-19 case numbers started to decline as of late July after several weeks of increasing case numbers. The improving case rates meant several counties did not re-introduce mask mandates.
  • Deaths in the state from COVID-19 increased in July but remain near pandemic lows. Weekly U.S. deaths also increased in July but declined the most recent week tracked in July.
  • In California, 72% of the state’s population is fully vaccinated against COVID-19 (vs. 67% U.S.).

Consumer Indicators

  • Sentiment around the pandemic and travel is somewhat mixed this month driven by COVID-19 and inflation concerns.
  • For the first time since January, more travelers in California and the U.S overall say the coronavirus situation is “getting worse” than say “getting better.”
  • For the third month in a row, the percent of Californians in the mindset to travel segment declined. The comparable figure for the U.S. overall also declined last month.
  • Fewer travelers are also saying they are “excited” to travel or learn about new destinations.
  • Gas prices and cost of travel have been deterrents to travel, more so than health concerns.

International Indicators

  • The May 2022 international forecast was downgraded slightly and shows that 53% of international spending in California will be recovered in 2022, with full recovery to pre-pandemic spending in 2025.
  • COVID-19 case rates are increasing in the Asia Pacific region (Japan, South Korea, and Australia) and Canada, but are now declining in much of Europe which saw significant increases in case rates the prior month.
  • YouGov consumer tracking shows that consumer interest in overseas/international leisure travel is generally higher than prior year in most markets, but there continued to be some pullback in July, particularly in European markets. The price of travel was increasingly a barrier to travel. Health concerns related to travel also increased in July.
  • Airlift and non-resident arrival numbers, however, continued to show recovery in June data. In terms of arrivals at California’s ports of entry, Asia Pacific markets had the largest month over month gains (but overall arrivals are still well behind 2019 arrivals for the same period), while many European markets had month over month declines.
  • California’s share of international arrivals based on First Intended Address (FIA) improved to 15% in June and is at 14% YTD (compared to a 16% share pre-pandemic.)

Lodging/Airline Indicators

  • Weekly hotel occupancy for the state reached another pandemic high, 78% for the last two weeks of July, down 7-8% from 2019 comparable weeks.
  • ADR also reached a pandemic high at $213.77, 13% above 2019 ADR for the comparable week.
  • Air passenger traffic recovery in July stalled somewhat, averaging 15.9 million travelers per week. Weekly counts were down 11% to 14% relative to 2019.
  • Airlift into the state increased in June with 9.3M domestic and 1.7M international non-stop seats to California.

Economic Indicators

  • Economic indicators lag by a month.
  • Travel spending in California for June was $13.7 billion, down  3% from 2019. This was the fifth straight month of growth in spending.
  • The unemployment rate for California improved to 4.2% vs. 3.6% for the U.S.
  • Inflation and fuel prices continue to be a challenge for the economy. The Monthly Consumer Price Index for June showed 9% inflation across all categories (an increase over May.) California gas prices, however, declined in July, averaging $5.90 for the month.


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