Visitation and Spend Forecast (May 2026)

An outlook on visitation and spending, including international spend and visitor forecast for 13 priority markets, featuring both baseline and downside scenarios.

• According to Tourism Economics’ May baseline forecast, California’s visitor volume is forecast to increase 1.5% in 2026, adding 4.1 million visits and bringing the statewide total to 275.5 million visitors.
• Visitor spending is forecast to grow by $7.6 billion (+4.8%) in 2026, reaching $166.5 billion. Rising prices, particularly higher gas prices, are expected to contribute to overall spending growth.
• Domestic travel spending is forecast to increase 4.8% in 2026, following a 2.5% gain in 2025.
• International visits are forecast to rise 2.4% in 2026. Overseas arrivals are expected to increase 1.8%, partially recovering from the 5.0% decline recorded in 2025.
• Visits from Mexico are projected to grow 2.8% in 2026 after a strong 7.5% increase in 2025. Meanwhile, visits from Canada, which declined by 20.1% in 2025, are forecast to rebound modestly by 2.6% in 2026.
• International visitor spending, which fell 4.4% in 2025, is forecast to rebound 5.8% in 2026.
• According to Tourism Economics, the downside forecast assumes a prolonged conflict in Iran keeps gas prices and inflation elevated, weakens international traveler sentiment toward the U.S., and creates continued trade-related disruptions with Canada and Mexico.
• Under the downside scenario, California’s total visitor volume growth would slow to 1.2% in 2026, with domestic visitation increasing 1.3%. International visitation would decline 0.4%, driven by a 1.2% drop in overseas arrivals and a sharp 6.1% decline in visits from Canada, while growth from Mexico would slow to 1.1%.